Economic Apocalypse?


#1

" My view, however, is that virtually everyone is underestimating the tremendous economic risks that have built up globally during the past decade of extremely stimulative monetary policies. "

https://realinvestmentadvice.com/why-you-should-not-underestimate-the-severity-of-the-coming-recession/

I am interested to hear the views of ideapod community members on this topic. Please refer to the linked article.


#2

It seems that we need a way to manage finances on a world wide basis. Decisions need to be made on something other than will the decision put money in the pocket of the decision maker. Obviously we are in need of a decision makers without pockets. This would be the money management team of AI. When you try to make a decision that makes all 7 billion people happy you have a problem. The world has become too complicated for the bean counters. Can decisions be made that will keep the 7 billion alive until they pass on? Sure, any decision will do that. In 140 years no one alive today will still be here and we will have a whole new population. That group will be very comfortable with their AIs and a recession will never be possible.


#3

I think I finally get it: AI is your idea of a new world order.


#4

We have internet all over the world, that is not a “new world order”. When something that is accepted by people and is not that difficult to deliver it will be delivered. Right now you ask google a question and get something. What if you could ask an AI a question and if you provide it a database about you and the problem that you have constructed just for this use and only this AI will know who it applies to and who you are) and you get the most qualified answer (be it medical or legal or anything) you would probably be pleased. There are no “world order” here, just a smart helper.


#5

Sounds like a new world order to me.


#6

I think the disparity between the rate of col and the rate of wage increase over the past 20 years is going to cause a major collapse, something has to give. I suspect a major infrastructure investment / jobs bill would buttress things, sufficiently …not sure about that.


#7

You know that a person is not a trader if he thinks that AI can trade better than the “bean counters”. Even the Head of Citadel, the biggest HFT Firm in US, admits that the trading robots can’t trade as good as humans. It’s like the analogy of a self driving car. Everything is well and good if you are treading a smooth even track but once the road gets bumpy and there is a lot of traffic, then that’s where the AI gets dizzy. Please read about what happened to LTCM which was built by Nobel Laureates.


#8

Inflation will always go up as time goes by. Putting your hopes on the government, that it will make things economically better, is no better than wishing to a tooth fairy.


#9

@BillAmes
Artificial intelligence cannot be the answer to every question. Please try to broaden your frame of reference.


#10

Let use look at it from a different perspective. Forget the name AI. Just focus on the computing power we have developed and will continue to develop. Computers have helped us make decisions since the first computers. That will not change. As we progress into the future we will be making more and more decisions using computers. The people that make the best decisions for our collective humanity will benefit from these decisions. We will start to see decisions that we do not understand how the decisions were made. Alpha Zero chess software for example. Some people are opposed to using computers if we, humans, are not able to understand how the software works. At the same time we are developing new hardware to improve and investigate how to make the software better. What would you recommend?


#11

I find interesting that you use the tooth fairy to support your working theory. I like to think that the tooth fairy is a very real representation of an Apriori structure. We use it to communicate the truth to children because we see in stories. A child may panic when a tooth falls out and you may say , “it’s for the best, it’s making room for your tooth” a child might just accept fully what you say at face value ( but that is not a good policy ) and still worry over the loss. The story of the tooth fairy redirects the focus from worry over to the ethereal realm . The Apriori structure I mentioned is that in order for you to receive potential future, you must sacrifice the lesser present and that’s hard sometimes to see in the present. If you are relatively financially rich, you might see a massive jobs bill as a loss for you on some level and not see as a capitalist that it is positive for people to have adequate monies. That they actually put it in the economy and that as a capitalist, you can capitalize on it. But you don’t, perhaps typically because if they aren’t poor then you can’t be the same level of rich relatively speaking.
On the issue of government, i suspect that government is much more than you think it is.


#12

Capitalism will run on its own regardless of who the President is and what his policies are. It’s just so wrong to put your full faith in the government to make your life better. Many of the rich guys in Silicon Valley started out in a garage, pinning their hopes to make it big in tech world through their ideas. They didn’t pin their hopes on the gov’t making their lives better. Because as time goes by, like it or not, dollar will decrease its purchasing power. But life goes on. No president can stop that. It’s just the forever wheel of capitalism moving on.


#13

I don’t put full faith in what you perceive as govt. However it is not to be casually dismissed either.


#14

Big wheels have 3 wheels . Capitalism on the back right, socialism on the back left and the individual pedaling like a mother fu$#er on the front one.


#15

But capitalism doesn’t run on its own at all. American royalty buy policy and monopoly rights all the time. Telling poor people to not use govt to an end is laughable at best, class warfare at worst.


#16

Some say that the US Federal Reserve - through its monetary and regulatory policies and backed by 1) the US Congress and 2) previous and current administrations as well as 3) multinational corporations, 4) banks, 5) other central banks and 6) foreign governments - has been implementing an intentional plan to inflate and then crash the world economy. The motive would be revealed in the aftermath.


#17

Some others say they welcome the crash of the world economy. They claim they have made preparations to live in comfort, isolated from the mobs until the dust settles and offer the survivors the things no longer produced.

I believe them as you can not find their hiding places, and there is no rumor of their existence. Because only the fittest will survive, they will have plenty of gold to purchase the products of the “some others.” With a world that no longer has governments and less than 3 billion population, a common problem will be ensuring everyone gets a piece of the action.

The robot farms are providing food and nothing that is not needed is being manufactured. , and most people work in the fields of science and technology. This world is powered by small fusion power plants located in each home that provides water from the air and disposes of waste by converting it to atomic dust.

Think of the best in the world today that has none of the problems of the world today. There will be no crime because it would take more work to be a criminal than to get much more by being just a good citizen.

AIs will educate all from birth to age 30; housekeeping robots will do all menial work. Lifespan will approach 230, and the birth rate will be adjusted to a maintenance level.


#18

@BillAmes
For goodness’ sake, Bill! Again with the AIs? This cannot be the answer to every question. Or is this just about AI trolling?


#19

The future is where the AIs will have a significant impact. If you find it difficult to hear about them I suggest you provide an alternative idea on how future problems will be solved. Computers are getting bigger and better and will be used, I do not see anything better being proposed. If you come upon a drowning person one could throw them a preserver tied to a rope or suggest they learn to swim. Learning to use the AI is like learning to swim, do that first before you get in over your head.


#22

@BillAmes
You have managed to derail yet another discussion with your insistence. Please discuss AIs here for example.