Economic Apocalypse?

(ACD) #23

Excerpt from an interesting Doug Casey polemic: “… the economic clock on the wall is reading the same time as it was in 2007, and the Black Horsemen of your worst financial nightmares are about to again crash through the doors and end the party.” (source)

(ACD) #24

“That boards, executives, and shareholders chose to loot their own companies indicates that the executives and owners do not perceive an economy that warrants new investment. How is the alleged 10-year boom reconciled with an economy in which corporations see no investment opportunities? … An individual corporation, indeed a number of corporations, can benefit by abandoning its domestic work force and producing abroad for its domestic market. But when many firms do the same, the impact on domestic consumer income is severe.”

(Bill Ames) #25

It is a world economy now. Just ask Amazon and FedX and UPS. We are all connected. And it is in constant flux, and only those who have access to the best data will be really successful. All the rest it is like playing the slots. There is a total turnover in the players every 140 years so the game continues. It is really just a game. Haven’t you noticed?

(ACD) #26

For most of the world, a life-or-death game. Much more serious than any game I would like to play.

(Bill Ames) #27

Because there is a turnover in players every 140 years it is just a game and you can not exit the game so just play along. Only the AI will learn over time, they never die.

(ACD) #28

This seems like a message from one who is no longer among the living.

(ACD) #29

(Bill Ames) #30

13 Facts: why the next crisis is inevitable

If we accept each “fact” is actual and we agree that we lack the ability to predict the future based on these facts we are back to playing a game. If you know how to predict the future than your ability to win the game (life, fortune, good times) will be your reward. For people in this world that depend on everything working well are not motivated to muck up the system. Common sense will prevail, the rules of the game will be followed.

(ACD) #31

The problem is hypocrisy: the rules have ben trampled.

(Bill Ames) #32

It does not help to complain about the quality of the players or a messy playing field. All are people, only I have access to better, that is a different story, I can not fix the problems you see, I am sure you are much more connected to the world then I have ever been.

(ACD) #33

If these complaints were made in a forum which has the authority to procure evidence and to take judiciary action, it could help.

(Bill Ames) #34

Only God or my characters are able to judge. You can not do otherwise as there are none who are free from guilt to be on a jury.

(ACD) #35

Is it going too far to describe your position as nihilist?

(Bill Ames) #36

I had to look that up. I will never be embarrassed to admit my lack of education.

I am a strong believer in the existence of God and believe we exist to be creative. There are rules we all should follow. My characters have one, “Do no harm.”

In our imperfect world too many, by choice or circumstances do not follow the rules. If when the universe was created it included rules we could not break would we be the same, just like a flower bed, no flags on the moon? Probably.

(ACD) #37

I was referring to moral nihilism: the denial of right and wrong. I should have used the term pessimist, an august philosophical tradition which denies the possibility of the triumph of good over evil. Camus took pessimism to its absurdist extreme.

(Bill Ames) #38

In my world good will always triumph over evil. In my stories, in what I watch and read, that is required. When the universe was created (I described how) it precluded evil from winning. Apparently there are temporary instances of this happening, for a period of time, but this allows humanity to know how important it is for good to triumph.

(ACD) #39

This is what brought nihilism and pessimism to my mind, yet you say you believe in the triumph of good over evil?

(Bill Ames) #40

Absolutely. And I am very careful to be able to tell the difference between some groups opinion what is good or evil and what is truly good and evil.

(ACD) #41

“… the recent collapse in trade and manufacturing foreshadows the end of the economic cycle and the Fed won’t be able to save us. And just to add a little spice to the mix: For the first time I can remember, it appears that the U.S. and China are going through this data reaction function evolution in tandem.”

(ACD) #42
  • In the US, year-to-date announced closures have already exceeded the total we recorded for the full year 2018. Coresight Research estimates announced US store closures could reach 12,000 by the end of 2019.
  • So far this year, US retailers have announced 7,062 store closures and 3,017 store openings. This compares to 5,864 closures and 3,258 openings for the full year 2018.
  • Year to date, UK retailers have announced 394 store closures and 479 store openings.

"UBS analysts said 75,000 more stores would need to be shuttered by 2026 if e-commerce penetration rises to 25% from its current level of 16%. A separate analysis by UBS said tariffs on Chinese imports could put $40 billion of sales and 12,000 stores at risk. ‘The market is not realizing how much brick & mortar retail is incrementally struggling and how new 25% tariffs could force widespread store closures,’ UBS analyst Jay Sole wrote in the May report. ‘We think potential 25% tariffs on Chinese imports could accelerate pressure on these company’s profit margins to the point where major store closures become a real possibility.’ "